Las Vegas Mail Ballots are Likely to Favor Democrats

With just 1,000 votes separating her from her Republican rival Adam Laxalt, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is predicted to win the remaining votes in Clark County.

As mail-in ballots were counted in Nevada over the weekend, incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto came within 1,000 votes of defeating her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, for the remaining seat the party needs to maintain its 50-50 Senate majority.

The focus will be on Clark County, which is a Democratic stronghold and is where Las Vegas is located. If the pattern continues among the approximately 25,000 mail ballots that are still to be counted, Ms. Cortez Masto will have nearly a two to one lead over Mr. Laxalt in mail ballots tabulated there after Election Day.

On Saturday, results for the majority of the remaining mail-in ballots in Clark County are anticipated (though the deadline to have all ballots counted is not until Tuesday). Depending on the number of votes counted and the magnitude of Ms. Cortez Masto's advantage, that might be sufficient for news media to predict a winner.

The majority of news agencies, including The Associated Press, are hesitant to declare elections won when the front-runner is ahead by fewer than 5% of the vote, or in this case, around 5,000 votes.

Even still, if Ms. Cortez Masto performs as well in the remaining Clark postal ballots as she has in the ones that have been counted so far, she will gain a lead of more than 5,000 votes. 

She is also anticipated to benefit from the remaining Washoe County mail ballots and the additional 10,000 mail ballots that voters can "cure" after they were first disqualified for a poor signature match.

Few thousand Republican-leaning rural counties in the state still have mail-in ballots to cast.